Atherton Collieries 4-3 Morpeth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.63
Over 2.5
57%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
11%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
4%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+10.3pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-11.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
34%
+8.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
66%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.5pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atherton Collieries EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 59%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.14/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.60
-15% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atherton Collieries
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Morpeth Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
11.02.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 3-0 HT 0-0 Atherton Collieries Atherton Collieries İNGNLP
22.10.2022 Atherton Collieries Atherton Collieries 1-1 HT 1-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
23.04.2022 Atherton Collieries Atherton Collieries 1-1 HT 0-1 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
28.08.2021 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Atherton Collieries Atherton Collieries İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Atherton Collieries vs Morpeth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atherton Collieries squeezed past Morpeth Town 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Morpeth Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Morpeth Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atherton Collieries and 1.75 for Morpeth Town.

What was the final score of Atherton Collieries vs Morpeth Town?

Atherton Collieries 4-3 Morpeth Town in the England - Non League Premier on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atherton Collieries vs Morpeth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Morpeth Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atherton Collieries 34%, draw 22%, Morpeth Town 44%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Morpeth Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Morpeth Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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