Gosport Borough 2-1 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
44%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
40%
-6.9pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
44%
Away Win
35%
+8.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.3pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gosport Borough EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 39%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +26%
1.47/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.88
-8% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +72%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gosport Borough
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Merthyr Town
3.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
23.09.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-4 HT 1-2 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
10.12.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
06.08.2022 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 3-2 HT 1-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
19.03.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
13.11.2021 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 5-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gosport Borough squeezed past Merthyr Town 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Merthyr Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gosport Borough had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.40 goals for Gosport Borough and 1.20 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town?

Gosport Borough 2-1 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gosport Borough 33%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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