Düren Merzenich 2-3 Rödinghausen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
27%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.1pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.0pp
27%
Away Win
35%
-8.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Düren Merzenich EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Rödinghausen EU Bookmakers 38%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +12%
2.29/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.27
+40% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
307 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Düren Merzenich
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Rödinghausen
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
12.08.2023 Rödinghausen Rödinghausen 2-0 HT 1-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
25.02.2023 Rödinghausen Rödinghausen 1-1 HT 0-0 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich ALMBÖL
03.09.2022 Düren Merzenich Düren Merzenich 0-2 HT 0-0 Rödinghausen Rödinghausen ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Düren Merzenich vs Rödinghausen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rödinghausen nicked a narrow win over Düren Merzenich 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Düren Merzenich at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rödinghausen led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Düren Merzenich and 1.67 for Rödinghausen.

What was the final score of Düren Merzenich vs Rödinghausen?

Düren Merzenich 2-3 Rödinghausen in the Germany - Regional League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Düren Merzenich vs Rödinghausen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Düren Merzenich win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Düren Merzenich 41%, draw 32%, Rödinghausen 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Düren Merzenich), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Düren Merzenich) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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