Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Feb 2024

Newcastle Jets
1-1 HT 0-1
Melbourne Victory
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.17
1/2
6%
21.75
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
16%
8.7
X/2
22%
4.28
X/X
8%
5.35
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
17%
2.3
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
24%
+9.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 56%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.32/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.10
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +52%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 83%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
15.9 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.21 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
392 Passes 334
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 5-3 HT 4-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
12.02.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
04.11.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 4-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
16.04.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
12.02.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-2 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
10.04.2021 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
1-1
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.64 xG 1.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 8
353 Passes 383
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 28
28 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets and Melbourne Victory shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 48% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 52%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.64 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Newcastle Jets and 2.50 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?

Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 33%, draw 22%, Melbourne Victory 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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