Colwyn Bay 1-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
30%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
50%
Away Win
49%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 54%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.76/2.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.92
+57% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colwyn Bay
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Penybont
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
09.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colwyn Bay
1-2
AWAY Penybont
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Colwyn Bay vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past Colwyn Bay 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Colwyn Bay had 50% of the ball to Penybont's 50%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Colwyn Bay had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Colwyn Bay and 0.50 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Colwyn Bay 1-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colwyn Bay vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Colwyn Bay 28%, draw 23%, Penybont 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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