Ajax 1-1 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Feb 2024

Ajax
1-1 HT 1-1
PSV Eindhoven
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.61
Over 2.5
66%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.41
No
38%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.0
2-3 Goals
35%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
18%
5.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.42
1/2
6%
20.1
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
17%
7.33
X/2
16%
4.88
X/X
7%
6.42
2/1
4%
28.5
2/2
22%
2.56
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-3.2pp
34%
Under 2.5
35%
-0.5pp
66%
Over 2.5
65%
+0.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
67%
-4.3pp
38%
BTTS No
33%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 51%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
0.25/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.93
-52% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
15.0 Crosses 18.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
0W-1D-5L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.24 xG 2.27
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
447 Passes 282
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-2 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
30.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOK
23.04.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
06.11.2022 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
30.07.2022 Ajax Ajax 3-5 HT 1-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HSK
17.04.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOK

Ajax 1-1 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-1
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.20 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
363 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
33 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and PSV Eindhoven couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was PSV Eindhoven at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (62%) landed while over 2.5 goals (66%) missed.

On the day, Ajax had 49% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 51%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.20 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ajax and 3.00 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?

Ajax 1-1 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ajax 34%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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