NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Feb 2024

NEC Nijmegen
3-1 HT 0-1
Heracles
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.87
6+ Goals
14%
8.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.91
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.45
X/1
16%
3.89
X/2
8%
11.25
X/X
8%
6.17
2/1
7%
20.7
2/2
10%
8.19
2/X
7%
16.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 21%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.67/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.71
+0% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
22.4 Crosses 15.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.22 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
376 Passes 391
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.07.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
15.01.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
29.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
24.07.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
05.03.2017 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOL

NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-1
AWAY Heracles
2.97 xG 0.82
63% Ball Possession 37%
26 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
510 Passes 262
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
40 Box Touches 16
35 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 63% of the ball to Heracles's 37%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.97 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.67 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 55%, draw 21%, Heracles 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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