Fortuna Sittard 3-3 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Feb 2024

Fortuna Sittard
3-3 HT 0-2
Heerenveen
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.17
6+ Goals
13%
20.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.17 — our 24% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.09
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
15%
4.62
X/2
13%
6.44
X/X
12%
4.13
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
10%
4.92
2/X
5%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
43%
+5.1pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.8pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.51/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.31
-21% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 75%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.6 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.3

Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
284 Passes 426
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
25.01.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
27.08.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
05.02.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
18.09.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.01.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-3 HT 0-3 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL

Fortuna Sittard 3-3 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3-3
AWAY Heerenveen
1.67 xG 0.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 0
236 Passes 387
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Sittard at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 42% of the ball to Heerenveen's 58%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.67 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.17 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?

Fortuna Sittard 3-3 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 48%, draw 22%, Heerenveen 30%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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