Cesar Vallejo 3-2 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.85/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.12
+37% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.5 Crosses 16.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesar Vallejo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Melgar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.22 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
283 Passes 299
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 1-2 HT 1-2 Melgar Melgar PER
01.06.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-2 HT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
24.09.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 2-2 Melgar Melgar PER
18.04.2022 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
25.07.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
16.11.2020 Melgar Melgar 0-2 HT 0-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesar Vallejo
3-2
AWAY Melgar
1.73 xG 1.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
216 Passes 252
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cesar Vallejo vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesar Vallejo edged past Melgar 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cesar Vallejo as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cesar Vallejo had 47% of the ball to Melgar's 53%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 1.73 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cesar Vallejo and 1.33 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Cesar Vallejo vs Melgar?

Cesar Vallejo 3-2 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesar Vallejo vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesar Vallejo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cesar Vallejo 41%, draw 28%, Melgar 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesar Vallejo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cesar Vallejo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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