Gaziantep FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 Feb 2024

Gaziantep FK
1-1 HT 0-1
Kayserispor
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 30% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.89
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
21%
4.63
X/2
13%
6.74
X/X
10%
4.64
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
10%
4.88
2/X
11%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.3pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gaziantep FK v Kayserispor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.46/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.57
+13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.3 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gaziantep FK
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Kayserispor
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
366 Passes 370
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
06.11.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
06.05.2022 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
19.12.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
08.05.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
16.01.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 2-1 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL

Gaziantep FK 1-1 Kayserispor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gaziantep FK
1-1
AWAY Kayserispor
0.94 xG 0.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
294 Passes 368
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gaziantep FK and Kayserispor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gaziantep FK at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gaziantep FK had 47% of the ball to Kayserispor's 53%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.94 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.00 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?

Gaziantep FK 1-1 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gaziantep FK vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gaziantep FK win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gaziantep FK 43%, draw 26%, Kayserispor 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gaziantep FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gaziantep FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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