Montijo 2-1 Union Adarve — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
49%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.52
Over 2.5
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.13
No
48%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
12%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
50%
Away Win
46%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
43%
+9.5pp
48%
BTTS No
57%
-9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montijo EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Adarve EU Bookmakers 50%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.82/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.65
-13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +39%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montijo
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Union Adarve
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Union Adarve Union Adarve 2-2 HT 1-0 Montijo Montijo İS4
05.02.2023 Union Adarve Union Adarve 4-0 HT 2-0 Montijo Montijo İS4
18.09.2022 Montijo Montijo 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Adarve Union Adarve İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montijo
2-1
AWAY Union Adarve
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Montijo vs Union Adarve
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montijo squeezed past Union Adarve 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Union Adarve at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Montijo had 53% of the ball to Union Adarve's 47%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Montijo and 2.00 for Union Adarve.

What was the final score of Montijo vs Union Adarve?

Montijo 2-1 Union Adarve in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montijo vs Union Adarve?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Adarve win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Montijo 24%, draw 27%, Union Adarve 50%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Adarve), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Adarve) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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