Hamburg 1-2 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Mar 2024

Hamburg
1-2 HT 1-1
Osnabrück
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hamburg vs Osnabrück Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.82
2-3 Goals
38%
2.17
4-5 Goals
30%
2.48
6+ Goals
12%
4.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.73
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.65
X/1
19%
4.0
X/2
8%
13.15
X/X
13%
7.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
18.5
2/2
10%
8.51
2/X
5%
16.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.5 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.3pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.9pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+8.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Osnabrück — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
2.22/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.58
+8% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
22.2 Crosses 13.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Hamburg vs Osnabrück Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.49 xG 1.71
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
444 Passes 180
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
25 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 2-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
16.05.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
18.01.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 5-0 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
16.06.2020 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
29.11.2019 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-1 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
13.08.2017 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AFK

Hamburg 1-2 Osnabrück — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-2
AWAY Osnabrück
1.36 xG 0.97
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 5
401 Passes 138
81% Pass Accuracy 58%
35 Box Touches 13
35 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osnabrück edged past Hamburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Hamburg had 67% of the ball to Osnabrück's 33%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 1.36 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osnabrück led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hamburg and 1.83 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Osnabrück?

Hamburg 1-2 Osnabrück in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 53%, draw 24%, Osnabrück 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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