MSV Duisburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Mar 2024

MSV Duisburg
2-1 HT 2-0
Borussia Dortmund II
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

MSV Duisburg vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.02
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
16%
4.85
X/2
8%
7.13
X/X
18%
5.29
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
12%
4.72
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 10% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.9pp
34%
Draw
26%
+8.0pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MSV Duisburg v Borussia Dortmund II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.49/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.36
-6% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 73%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.5 Crosses –
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

MSV Duisburg vs Borussia Dortmund II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.09.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-0 HT 1-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
08.04.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 0-5 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
16.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-0 HT 1-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
06.02.2022 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
29.08.2021 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 4-1 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
21.03.2015 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-4 HT 1-2 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3

MSV Duisburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MSV Duisburg
2-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg squeezed past Borussia Dortmund II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 34% / 30% — and on the day MSV Duisburg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, MSV Duisburg had 40% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 60%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund II led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MSV Duisburg and 2.67 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Borussia Dortmund II?

MSV Duisburg 2-1 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MSV Duisburg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 37%, draw 34%, Borussia Dortmund II 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MSV Duisburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MSV Duisburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
3 Mar 2024
15:30 Ingolstadt vs Viktoria Köln Analysis →
18:30 Arminia Bielefeld vs Verl Analysis →