Meuselwitz 4-1 Rot-Weiss Erfurt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meuselwitz EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot-Weiss Erfurt EU Bookmakers 46%
-13% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -20%
1.25/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.80
-10% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meuselwitz
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Rot-Weiss Erfurt
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt 1-2 HT 1-1 Meuselwitz Meuselwitz ALMBÖL
12.02.2023 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt 2-0 HT 0-0 Meuselwitz Meuselwitz ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 Meuselwitz Meuselwitz 1-4 HT 0-2 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meuselwitz
4-1
AWAY Rot-Weiss Erfurt
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Meuselwitz vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Meuselwitz cruised past Rot-Weiss Erfurt 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rot-Weiss Erfurt at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Meuselwitz had 42% of the ball to Rot-Weiss Erfurt's 58%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Erfurt led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Meuselwitz and 2.33 for Rot-Weiss Erfurt.

What was the final score of Meuselwitz vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt?

Meuselwitz 4-1 Rot-Weiss Erfurt in the Germany - Regional League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meuselwitz vs Rot-Weiss Erfurt?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rot-Weiss Erfurt win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Meuselwitz 31%, draw 27%, Rot-Weiss Erfurt 42%. The final score 4-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Erfurt) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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