Independiente 2-1 Argentinos Juniors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

Independiente
2-1 HT 1-1
Argentinos Juniors
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.45
Over 2.5
31%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.19
No
65%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
2.1
2-3 Goals
35%
1.82
4-5 Goals
15%
6.1
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.75
X/1
14%
4.25
X/2
15%
7.03
X/X
13%
3.4
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
9%
6.17
2/X
6%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.3pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.5pp
69%
Under 2.5
65%
+3.8pp
31%
Over 2.5
35%
-3.7pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.8pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente v Argentinos Juniors — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Argentinos Juniors EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.28/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.09
-11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.5 Crosses 18.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Argentinos Juniors
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.26 xG 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
259 Passes 369
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
07.05.2023 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors 2-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
17.06.2022 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors 2-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
19.07.2021 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors ARJ
29.12.2020 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
19.10.2019 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-0 Argentinos Juniors Argentinos Juniors ARJ

Independiente 2-1 Argentinos Juniors — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
2-1
AWAY Argentinos Juniors
2.58 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 311
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente squeezed past Argentinos Juniors 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente had 47% of the ball to Argentinos Juniors's 53%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.58 to 1.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Argentinos Juniors led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Independiente and 0.83 for Argentinos Juniors.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors?

Independiente 2-1 Argentinos Juniors in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Independiente 41%, draw 30%, Argentinos Juniors 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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