Nacional Potosi 1-0 Aurora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.59
Over 2.5
47%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.41
No
48%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
35%
+17.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
65%
-17.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
67%
-14.8pp
48%
BTTS No
33%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Potosi EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurora EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
2.68/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.11
+62% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
28.5 Crosses 16.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Potosi
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aurora
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.66 xG 1.49
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
318 Passes 209
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2023 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi 0-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
20.02.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
10.09.2022 Aurora Aurora 1-5 HT 1-1 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
15.05.2022 Aurora Aurora 2-3 HT 2-2 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
02.04.2022 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi 2-1 HT 0-1 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
01.11.2021 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi 0-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Potosi
1-0
AWAY Aurora
1.39 xG 1.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
244 Passes 355
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional Potosi vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Potosi squeezed past Aurora 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional Potosi as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nacional Potosi had 43% of the ball to Aurora's 57%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.39 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional Potosi had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional Potosi and 1.00 for Aurora.

What was the final score of Nacional Potosi vs Aurora?

Nacional Potosi 1-0 Aurora in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Potosi vs Aurora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Potosi win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nacional Potosi 45%, draw 28%, Aurora 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional Potosi), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional Potosi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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