AGF Aarhus 1-1 Odense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.07
6+ Goals
11%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.41
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
21%
3.98
X/2
11%
8.51
X/X
11%
4.48
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
11%
6.95
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.9pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Odense EU Bookmakers 25%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +29%
1.64/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.57
-2% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
22.1 Crosses 14.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Odense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.37 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 Passes 343
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2023 Odense Odense 1-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.03.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Odense Odense DAN
07.08.2022 Odense Odense 1-2 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
01.05.2022 Odense Odense 1-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
24.04.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-2 HT 1-0 Odense Odense DAN
01.11.2021 Odense Odense 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-1
AWAY Odense
1.12 xG 2.26
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
434 Passes 281
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Odense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Odense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 59% of the ball to Odense's 41%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.12 to 2.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AGF Aarhus and 0.83 for Odense.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Odense?

AGF Aarhus 1-1 Odense in the Denmark - Süperlig on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Odense?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 46%, draw 25%, Odense 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ BTTS Yes
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