Tecnico Universitario 1-0 Cumbaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.6pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.8pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.6pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tecnico Universitario EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 18%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.79/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.32
+18% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
23.9 Crosses 11.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tecnico Universitario
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Cumbaya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.96 xG 0.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
277 Passes 237
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.10.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-1 HT 0-1 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
16.05.2023 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 0-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
06.08.2022 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 3-3 HT 1-1 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
19.03.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 2-0 HT 1-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tecnico Universitario
1-0
AWAY Cumbaya
1.15 xG 0.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tecnico Universitario vs Cumbaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tecnico Universitario edged past Cumbaya 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tecnico Universitario as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tecnico Universitario had 54% of the ball to Cumbaya's 46%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.15 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tecnico Universitario and 1.25 for Cumbaya.

What was the final score of Tecnico Universitario vs Cumbaya?

Tecnico Universitario 1-0 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tecnico Universitario vs Cumbaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tecnico Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tecnico Universitario 50%, draw 30%, Cumbaya 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tecnico Universitario), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tecnico Universitario) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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