Uni. Catolica 3-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Mar 2024

Uni. Catolica
3-0 HT 1-0
El Nacional
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.37
Draw
30%
4.49
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
68%
-20.4pp
30%
Draw
19%
+11.3pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uni. Catolica v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.59/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.66
-17% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
417 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.1 Crosses 17.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.7

Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
4W-2D-0L
AWAY El Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.70 xG 1.11
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
385 Passes 201
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
08.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
19.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
24.08.2020 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
25.08.2019 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
08.04.2019 Uni. Catolica 3-1 HT 3-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1

Uni. Catolica 3-0 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
3-0
AWAY El Nacional
1.51 xG 0.14
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
584 Passes 129
90% Pass Accuracy 63%
25 Box Touches 7
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica swept aside El Nacional 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 75% of the ball to El Nacional's 25%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.51 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Uni. Catolica and 0.67 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional?

Uni. Catolica 3-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 48%, draw 30%, El Nacional 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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