Sham Shui Po 3-1 Hong Kong Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.95
Draw
20%
5.71
Away
67%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.17
Over 2.5
65%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
4%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
49%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
10%
+3.9pp
20%
Draw
14%
+5.7pp
67%
Away Win
76%
-9.6pp
35%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.3pp
65%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sham Shui Po EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Hong Kong Rangers EU Bookmakers 81%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.13/4.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.07/0.37
-82% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +39%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
271 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sham Shui Po
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Hong Kong Rangers
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 14
2 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Hong Kong Rangers Hong Kong Rangers 9-0 HT 4-0 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK1
19.03.2023 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po 0-7 HT 0-3 Hong Kong Rangers Hong Kong Rangers HK1
20.11.2022 Hong Kong Rangers Hong Kong Rangers 4-0 HT 2-0 Sham Shui Po Sham Shui Po HK1
POST-MATCH Sham Shui Po vs Hong Kong Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sham Shui Po beat Hong Kong Rangers 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hong Kong Rangers at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hong Kong Rangers led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Sham Shui Po and 6.67 for Hong Kong Rangers.

What was the final score of Sham Shui Po vs Hong Kong Rangers?

Sham Shui Po 3-1 Hong Kong Rangers in the Hong Kong - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sham Shui Po vs Hong Kong Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hong Kong Rangers win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Sham Shui Po 13%, draw 20%, Hong Kong Rangers 67%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hong Kong Rangers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hong Kong Rangers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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