Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Mar 2024

Rakow Czestochowa
4-0 HT 3-0
Lech Poznan
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Rakow Czestochowa vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.65
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.42
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.86
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.1
X/1
11%
4.32
X/2
7%
7.01
X/X
17%
4.12
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
16%
5.63
2/X
5%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rakow Czestochowa v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
0.84/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.09
-34% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
15.4 Crosses 9.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Rakow Czestochowa vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.56 xG 1.30
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
291 Passes 399
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.09.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 4-1 HT 2-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
14.05.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
30.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
09.07.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa PLS
02.05.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-3 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
06.03.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
4-0
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.97 xG 0.65
35% Ball Possession 65%
21 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 4
247 Passes 512
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa swept aside Lech Poznan 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 35% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 65%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 0.97 to 0.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 1.33 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Lech Poznan?

Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 46%, draw 26%, Lech Poznan 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5
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