Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.57
X/2
8%
6.81
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
16%
5.12
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.7pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.45/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.38
+2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.8 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.70 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
369 Passes 294
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
23.04.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-2 HT 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
09.10.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
26.06.2020 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
09.06.2020 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
02.11.2019 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1-0
AWAY Korona Kielce
0.48 xG 0.63
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
257 Passes 396
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin nicked a narrow win over Korona Kielce 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zaglebie Lubin as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 40% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 60%, shots finished 5-12, expected goals 0.48 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Korona Kielce led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.33 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zaglebie Lubin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 43%, draw 27%, Korona Kielce 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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