Penafiel 0-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Mar 2024

Penafiel
0-1 HT 0-0
AVS
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.61
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.51
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 49%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.09/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.55/1.53
+20% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 19.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-0D-1L
AWAY AVS
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.39 xG 1.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
186 Passes 250
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.10.2023 AVS AVS 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-1
AWAY AVS
1.85 xG 2.01
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
148 Passes 252
64% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS edged past Penafiel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AVS as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Penafiel had 43% of the ball to AVS's 57%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 1.85 to 2.01.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs AVS?

Penafiel 0-1 AVS in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated an AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 29%, draw 27%, AVS 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AVS), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AVS) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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