UD Oliveirense 0-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-0.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.3pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.41/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.74
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -48%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 21.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Nacional
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.54 xG 1.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
347 Passes 247
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.10.2023 Nacional Nacional 5-0 HT 4-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
07.04.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-3 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
23.10.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
15.10.2022 Nacional Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POK
12.01.2020 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
0-1
AWAY Nacional
0.50 xG 2.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 15
156 Passes 235
60% Pass Accuracy 73%
11 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional nicked a narrow win over UD Oliveirense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 44% of the ball to Nacional's 56%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 0.50 to 2.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nacional's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.60 for Nacional.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Nacional?

UD Oliveirense 0-1 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 30%, draw 25%, Nacional 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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