Dinamo Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

Dinamo Moscow
2-1 HT 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.26
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.31
X/2
14%
6.03
X/X
12%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.85
2/2
16%
3.88
2/X
6%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dinamo Moscow v Lokomotiv Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.43/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.38
-13% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.1 Crosses 13.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9

Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.73 xG 1.08
49% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
298 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
28.05.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
22.10.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-3 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
14.05.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-3 HT 1-3 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
27.08.2021 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
08.05.2021 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS

Dinamo Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.27 xG 0.39
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
285 Passes 428
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow edged past Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Dinamo Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 43% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 57%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.27 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Dinamo Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 39%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Moscow 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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