Hammarby 2-1 Kalmar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.59
6+ Goals
11%
6.38
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.9 — our 26% vs market 14.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
68%
-14.3pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.4pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hammarby EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalmar EU Bookmakers 17%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.91/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.74
+24% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -49%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hammarby
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kalmar
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.01
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
462 Passes 436
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.08.2024 Kalmar Kalmar 1-4 HT 0-1 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
31.03.2024 Hammarby Hammarby 3-1 HT 2-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
20.08.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 0-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
16.07.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 3-1 HT 2-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
30.10.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 4-2 HT 1-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
08.05.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 2-0 HT 2-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hammarby
2-1
AWAY Kalmar
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hammarby vs Kalmar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hammarby nicked a narrow win over Kalmar 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hammarby as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hammarby had 54% of the ball to Kalmar's 46%, shots finished 9-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hammarby had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hammarby and 1.17 for Kalmar.

What was the final score of Hammarby vs Kalmar?

Hammarby 2-1 Kalmar in the Sweden - Cup on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hammarby vs Kalmar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hammarby win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hammarby 54%, draw 25%, Kalmar 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hammarby), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hammarby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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