Akwa United 1-0 Katsina United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.47
Draw
37%
3.8
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.6
No
57%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
64%
-15.3pp
37%
Draw
23%
+13.5pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+1.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
34%
+8.7pp
57%
BTTS No
66%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Akwa United EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Katsina United EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.52/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.26/1.45
-5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Akwa United
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Katsina United
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
17.10.2024 Katsina United Katsina United 1-0 Akwa United Akwa United NIJ
12.06.2024 Akwa United Akwa United 3-1 HT 3-1 Katsina United Katsina United NIJ
15.01.2022 Akwa United Akwa United 2-0 HT 1-0 Katsina United Katsina United NIJ
27.06.2021 Katsina United Katsina United 1-0 HT 1-0 Akwa United Akwa United NIJ
07.02.2021 Akwa United Akwa United 3-0 HT 1-0 Katsina United Katsina United NIJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Akwa United
1-0
AWAY Katsina United
54% Ball Possession 46%
24 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Akwa United vs Katsina United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Akwa United nicked a narrow win over Katsina United 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Akwa United as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Akwa United had 54% of the ball to Katsina United's 46%, shots finished 24-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Akwa United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Akwa United and 0.60 for Katsina United.

What was the final score of Akwa United vs Katsina United?

Akwa United 1-0 Katsina United in the Nigeria NPFL on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Akwa United vs Katsina United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Akwa United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Akwa United 49%, draw 37%, Katsina United 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Akwa United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Akwa United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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