Paços De Ferreira 0-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Mar 2025

Paços De Ferreira
0-1 HT 0-0
UD Oliveirense
📅03/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Paços De Ferreira vs UD Oliveirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paços De Ferreira v UD Oliveirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.48/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.70
+22% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
27.9 Crosses 15.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3

Paços De Ferreira vs UD Oliveirense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
4W-1D-0L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.74 xG 1.52
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
267 Passes 354
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-2 HT 0-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
29.03.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
11.11.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
22.11.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-4 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POK
10.07.2019 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-2 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira HAZ

Paços De Ferreira 0-1 UD Oliveirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
0-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
0.46 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
278 Passes 180
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense nicked a narrow win over Paços De Ferreira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Paços De Ferreira at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 52% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 48%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.46 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 0.00 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs UD Oliveirense?

Paços De Ferreira 0-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 44%, draw 27%, UD Oliveirense 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✗ BTTS Yes
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