CSKA Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.44
No
52%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
67%
-2.4pp
18%
Draw
22%
-3.3pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
37%
+11.2pp
52%
BTTS No
63%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 14%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.69/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.29
-3% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +61%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
414 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Sofia
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-2 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia BUL1
27.05.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Sofia
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv squeezed past CSKA Sofia 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CSKA Sofia at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, CSKA Sofia had 56% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 44%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CSKA Sofia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CSKA Sofia and 0.00 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

CSKA Sofia 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split CSKA Sofia 64%, draw 18%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (CSKA Sofia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CSKA Sofia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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