Cesar Vallejo 0-1 Defensa y Justicia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.71
Over
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.82
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
17%
4.14
6+
9%
19.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.82 — our 33% vs market 29.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.46
1/2
9%
28.0
1/X
10%
13.85
X/1
13%
7.07
X/2
11%
4.51
X/X
11%
4.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.89
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.3pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 49%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.00/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.35
+3% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
301 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
7.0 Crosses 18.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesar Vallejo
0-1
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
1.07 xG 2.10
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
326 Passes 332
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cesar Vallejo vs Defensa y Justicia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia nicked a narrow win over Cesar Vallejo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Defensa y Justicia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cesar Vallejo had 50% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 50%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.07 to 2.10.

What was the final score of Cesar Vallejo vs Defensa y Justicia?

Cesar Vallejo 0-1 Defensa y Justicia in the Copa Sudamericana on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesar Vallejo vs Defensa y Justicia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Defensa y Justicia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cesar Vallejo 34%, draw 29%, Defensa y Justicia 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensa y Justicia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Defensa y Justicia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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