Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.62
Over
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.59
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.54
6+
8%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.2
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
8%
7.52
X/2
15%
4.18
X/X
14%
4.06
2/1
11%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.71
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
25%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.1pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 51%
+66% / +66% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.68/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.82
+110% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +143%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 83%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
13.0 Crosses 21.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1-4
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.84 xG 2.46
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
261 Passes 453
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense ran out comfortable winners over Sportivo Ameliano 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Atletico Paranaense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 40% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 60%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.84 to 2.46.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense?

Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 Atletico Paranaense in the Copa Sudamericana on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 33%, draw 27%, Atletico Paranaense 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
CON CSA More Copa Sudamericana
3 Apr 2024
03:30 Racing Club Montevideo vs Corinthians Analysis →
05:00 Cesar Vallejo vs Defensa y Justicia Analysis →