Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Apr 2024

Heracles
5-0 HT 3-0
AZ Alkmaar
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
57%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
31%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.19 — our 31% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.1
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
1/X
6%
18.5
X/1
6%
12.75
X/2
20%
3.59
X/X
8%
6.06
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.82
2/X
7%
17.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+7.0pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.4pp
57%
Away Win
64%
-6.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-5.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+5.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 69%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.20/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.13
+62% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 458 · 83%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
14.2 Crosses 18.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4

Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
1W-1D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.52 xG 2.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
324 Passes 502
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
19.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
15.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOK
19.09.2021 Heracles Heracles 3-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
16.05.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
29.11.2020 Heracles Heracles 1-2 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
5-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
3.27 xG 1.56
36% Ball Possession 64%
21 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
239 Passes 467
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 53
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles ran out comfortable winners over AZ Alkmaar 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. AZ Alkmaar carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Heracles had 36% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 64%, shots finished 21-18, expected goals 3.27 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heracles and 2.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Heracles 22%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar 57%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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