Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
31%
4.19
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.06
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 28% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
25%
3.64
X/2
7%
13.05
X/X
15%
6.23
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
5%
10.15
2/X
10%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-11.9pp
31%
Draw
21%
+10.7pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -5%
1.91/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.02
-19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
25.4 Crosses 15.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
1W-4D-1L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.06 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
327 Passes 307
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
07.05.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
25.09.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 5-1 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
30.01.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 3-3 HT 1-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
21.11.2020 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
17.01.2020 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-3 HT 1-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
5-1
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.93 xG 0.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 0
413 Passes 363
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht cruised past PEC Zwolle 5-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Utrecht had 52% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 48%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.93 to 0.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Utrecht and 1.67 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?

Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 52%, draw 31%, PEC Zwolle 17%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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