Spartak Moskova 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 3 Apr 2024

Spartak Moskova
1-2 HT 1-0
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Russia - Cup – 2023/2024

Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.59
Over 2.5
52%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
22%
4.9
6+ Goals
12%
28.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.9 — our 22% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.37
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
16%
5.7
X/2
12%
5.08
X/X
14%
3.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.7
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
59%
-11.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
41%
+11.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spartak Moskova v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.15/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.63
+59% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
313 Passes 350
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
20.08.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-3 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
07.05.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-2 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.11.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
29.09.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-0 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
04.09.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 1-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS

Spartak Moskova 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
1-2
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg edged past Spartak Moskova 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 32%) promised a tight game; Zenit St. Petersburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 50% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 50%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Spartak Moskova and 1.33 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Spartak Moskova 1-2 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Cup on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 40%, draw 27%, Zenit St. Petersburg 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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