BG Pathum United 1-1 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 3 Apr 2024

BG Pathum United
1-1 HT 0-1
Buriram United
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Thailand - 1st Division – 2023/2024

BG Pathum United vs Buriram United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BG Pathum United v Buriram United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United EU Bookmakers 49%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.80/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.20
-27% / +107% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.3 Crosses 14.1
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.8

BG Pathum United vs Buriram United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Buriram United
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.79 xG 0.91
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
302 Passes 282
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Buriram United Buriram United 0-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
04.02.2023 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-2 HT 0-1 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
04.09.2022 Buriram United Buriram United 2-2 HT 0-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
20.03.2022 Buriram United Buriram United 0-1 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
06.11.2021 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-0 HT 1-0 Buriram United Buriram United TAY

BG Pathum United 1-1 Buriram United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-1
AWAY Buriram United
1.06 xG 0.52
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
425 Passes 319
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Buriram United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Buriram United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 57% of the ball to Buriram United's 43%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.06 to 0.52.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for BG Pathum United and 0.80 for Buriram United.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?

BG Pathum United 1-1 Buriram United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buriram United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 33%, draw 26%, Buriram United 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Buriram United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Buriram United) ✓ Under 2.5
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