Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.56
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.62
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
22%
5.01
X/2
11%
5.63
X/X
11%
3.99
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
15%
4.28
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+4.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sivasspor EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.46/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.44
-8% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 82%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.0 Crosses 18.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sivasspor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
324 Passes 419
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 1-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
04.03.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-3 HT 1-1 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
03.09.2022 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
02.03.2022 Sivasspor Sivasspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
20.02.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
25.09.2021 Sivasspor Sivasspor 4-0 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sivasspor
1-0
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.91 xG 1.66
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
315 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sivasspor edged past Fatih Karagümrük 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sivasspor as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sivasspor had 50% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 50%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 2.91 to 1.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sivasspor's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sivasspor and 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sivasspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sivasspor 43%, draw 26%, Fatih Karagümrük 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sivasspor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sivasspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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