Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1-2 Fasil Ketema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
47%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.51
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
21%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.1pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Welwalo Adigrat Uni EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 56%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +30% / +30%
0.00/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.52
-100% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +22%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
199 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Fasil Ketema
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2024 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema 1-0 Welwalo Adigrat Uni Welwalo Adigrat Uni ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1-2
AWAY Fasil Ketema
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Fasil Ketema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema edged past Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fasil Ketema as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Welwalo Adigrat Uni had 42% of the ball to Fasil Ketema's 58%, shots finished 5-6.

What was the final score of Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Fasil Ketema?

Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1-2 Fasil Ketema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Fasil Ketema?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fasil Ketema win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Welwalo Adigrat Uni 26%, draw 27%, Fasil Ketema 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fasil Ketema) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fasil Ketema) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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