Derby County U21 1-0 Manchester City U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — INGPL2, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.09
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
63%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
Over 2.5
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
3%
2/2
42%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
16%
+2.0pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.2pp
63%
Away Win
66%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.1pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City U21 EU Bookmakers 70%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -28%
1.31/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.42/1.49
+22% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -28%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
254 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.1 Crosses 18.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County U21
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Manchester City U21
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
23.08.2024 Derby County U21 Derby County U21 2-3 HT 2-1 Manchester City U21 Manchester City U21 INGPL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County U21
1-0
AWAY Manchester City U21
33% Ball Possession 67%
3 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 21
192 Passes 450
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Crosses 40
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County U21 nicked a narrow win over Manchester City U21 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Manchester City U21 at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derby County U21 had 33% of the ball to Manchester City U21's 67%, shots finished 3-19.

What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21?

Derby County U21 1-0 Manchester City U21 in the INGPL2 on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 18%, draw 18%, Manchester City U21 63%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City U21) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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