Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County U21 v Manchester City U21 — Team-Based Signals
Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
2-3
HT 2-1
Manchester City U21
INGPL2
Derby County U21 1-0 Manchester City U21 — Actual Match Statistics
Derby County U21 nicked a narrow win over Manchester City U21 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Manchester City U21 at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Derby County U21 had 33% of the ball to Manchester City U21's 67%, shots finished 3-19.
What was the final score of Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21?
Derby County U21 1-0 Manchester City U21 in the INGPL2 on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County U21 vs Manchester City U21?
Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Derby County U21 18%, draw 18%, Manchester City U21 63%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.