Barnsley 1-3 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 3 May 2024

Barnsley
1-3 HT 0-1
Bolton Wanderers
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
49%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 30% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.54
1/2
11%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
10%
6.81
X/2
21%
5.04
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
18%
2.97
2/X
7%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
49%
Away Win
43%
+5.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.5pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barnsley v Bolton Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 48%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.04/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/0.87
+46% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
218 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 72%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
20.1 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.95 xG 1.76
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
154 Passes 373
59% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.03.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 2-2 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
03.02.2024 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.05.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
13.05.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
02.01.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
05.11.2022 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-2 Barnsley Barnsley FAK

Barnsley 1-3 Bolton Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
1-3
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
0.68 xG 2.49
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
306 Passes 170
71% Pass Accuracy 57%
19 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers beat Barnsley 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bolton Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Barnsley had 59% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 41%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.68 to 2.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Barnsley and 1.33 for Bolton Wanderers.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers?

Barnsley 1-3 Bolton Wanderers in the England - 1st Division on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 27%, draw 24%, Bolton Wanderers 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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