Vanersborgs FK 2-3 Ahlafors IF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
45%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
27%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vanersborgs FK EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ahlafors IF EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.01/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.41
+19% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vanersborgs FK
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Ahlafors IF
2.60 Avg Goals (FT) 3.40
30.07.2022 Vanersborgs FK Vanersborgs FK 3-3 HT 0-1 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
03.04.2022 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF 1-3 HT 0-1 Vanersborgs FK Vanersborgs FK İSÇ4
25.09.2021 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF 4-3 HT 2-2 Vanersborgs FK Vanersborgs FK İSÇ4
18.06.2021 Vanersborgs FK Vanersborgs FK 1-3 HT 0-1 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
08.10.2020 Vanersborgs FK Vanersborgs FK 3-6 HT 2-3 Ahlafors IF Ahlafors IF İSÇ4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vanersborgs FK
2-3
AWAY Ahlafors IF
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vanersborgs FK vs Ahlafors IF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ahlafors IF nicked a narrow win over Vanersborgs FK 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ahlafors IF as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Vanersborgs FK had 53% of the ball to Ahlafors IF's 47%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ahlafors IF led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Vanersborgs FK and 3.40 for Ahlafors IF.

What was the final score of Vanersborgs FK vs Ahlafors IF?

Vanersborgs FK 2-3 Ahlafors IF in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vanersborgs FK vs Ahlafors IF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ahlafors IF win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Vanersborgs FK 31%, draw 24%, Ahlafors IF 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ahlafors IF), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ahlafors IF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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