Bellinzona 1-2 Neuchatel Xamax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.82
Over 2.5
36%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.73
No
60%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.67
6+ Goals
8%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 37% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
15%
2/1
13%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
33%
-1.6pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.9pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
51%
+12.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
49%
-12.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
54%
-13.3pp
60%
BTTS No
46%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -13%
1.13/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.22
-26% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 81%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
12.9 Crosses 25.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
289 Passes 384
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 0-1 HT 0-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
10.12.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
01.09.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 1-1 HT 1-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
19.03.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-1 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
07.10.2022 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 3-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
27.08.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 3-1 HT 0-1 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
1-2
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
0.43 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 10
281 Passes 416
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neuchatel Xamax squeezed past Bellinzona 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 32% / 36%) promised a tight game; Neuchatel Xamax found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bellinzona had 42% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 58%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.43 to 1.77 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Neuchatel Xamax's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bellinzona and 1.17 for Neuchatel Xamax.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Bellinzona 1-2 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neuchatel Xamax win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 32%, draw 32%, Neuchatel Xamax 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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