Vaduz 2-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 3 May 2024

Vaduz
2-1 HT 0-0
Aarau
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
6.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.7pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vaduz EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
2.02/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.91
+17% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.9 Crosses 15.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vaduz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.32 xG 1.09
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
221 Passes 350
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
22.10.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
25.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 3-2 HT 1-2 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
14.05.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 0-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
02.04.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
16.10.2022 Vaduz Vaduz 4-0 HT 4-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vaduz
2-1
AWAY Aarau
1.47 xG 2.05
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
443 Passes 385
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 31
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vaduz vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vaduz nicked a narrow win over Aarau 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vaduz as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vaduz had 54% of the ball to Aarau's 46%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.47 to 2.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aarau.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Vaduz and 1.17 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Vaduz vs Aarau?

Vaduz 2-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vaduz vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vaduz win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vaduz 46%, draw 26%, Aarau 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vaduz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vaduz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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