Aarau 1-0 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 26 Jan 2024

Aarau
1-0 HT 0-0
Vaduz
📅26/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Switzerland Challenge League – 2023/2024

Aarau vs Vaduz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.41
No
43%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.54
6+ Goals
10%
5.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.7pp
43%
BTTS No
33%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aarau v Vaduz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -11%
0.89/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.81
-3% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
12.0 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Aarau vs Vaduz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vaduz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
425 Passes 215
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
25.09.2023 Aarau Aarau 3-2 HT 1-2 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
14.05.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 0-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
02.04.2023 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
16.10.2022 Vaduz Vaduz 4-0 HT 4-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
15.07.2022 Aarau Aarau 1-1 HT 1-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2

Aarau 1-0 Vaduz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-0
AWAY Vaduz
0.78 xG 0.37
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
199 Passes 233
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau squeezed past Vaduz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Aarau found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aarau had 46% of the ball to Vaduz's 54%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.78 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aarau and 1.83 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Vaduz?

Aarau 1-0 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 26/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aarau 40%, draw 26%, Vaduz 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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