Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Vanraure Hachinohe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.6
Over 2.5
52%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.6pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vanraure Hachinohe EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.52/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.50
+7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Vanraure Hachinohe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
30.09.2023 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe 1-2 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
22.07.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 3-0 HT 1-0 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe JAP3
31.07.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 HT 0-0 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe JAP3
02.07.2022 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe 0-1 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-2
AWAY Vanraure Hachinohe
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Vanraure Hachinohe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vanraure Hachinohe squeezed past Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Matsumoto Yamaga at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 47% of the ball to Vanraure Hachinohe's 53%, shots finished 10-15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.50 for Vanraure Hachinohe.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Vanraure Hachinohe?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Vanraure Hachinohe in the Japan - J3 League on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Vanraure Hachinohe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 49%, draw 24%, Vanraure Hachinohe 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Over 2.5
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