Garliava 1-1 Nevezis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Garliava EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nevezis EU Bookmakers 43%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.45/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.37
+14% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Garliava
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Nevezis
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.08.2023 Nevezis Nevezis 1-1 HT 1-1 Garliava Garliava LIT1
01.04.2023 Garliava Garliava 0-0 HT 0-0 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
12.11.2022 Garliava Garliava 1-1 HT 1-0 Nevezis Nevezis LIT1
06.07.2022 Nevezis Nevezis 3-1 HT 2-0 Garliava Garliava LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Garliava
1-1
AWAY Nevezis
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Garliava vs Nevezis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Garliava and Nevezis shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Garliava had 49% of the ball to Nevezis's 51%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nevezis led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Garliava and 1.25 for Nevezis.

What was the final score of Garliava vs Nevezis?

Garliava 1-1 Nevezis in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Garliava vs Nevezis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Garliava win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Garliava 35%, draw 30%, Nevezis 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LIT1 More Lithuania - 1st Division
3 May 2024
18:00 Panevezys II vs Atmosfera Analysis →
18:00 Minija vs Neptüna Klaipeda Analysis →