CA La Paz 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
48%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-3.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
48%
Away Win
41%
+7.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 45%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.68/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.08/1.04
+46% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
272 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
28.03.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-4 HT 0-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
23.08.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-0 HT 2-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
24.02.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
14.07.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz and Leones Negros Udeg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Leones Negros Udeg at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, CA La Paz had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for CA La Paz and 1.75 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg?

CA La Paz 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 28%, draw 24%, Leones Negros Udeg 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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