Necaxa 1-1 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 May 2024

Necaxa
1-1 HT 0-0
Queretaro
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Queretaro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.15
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.35
X/1
17%
5.02
X/2
11%
6.6
X/X
7%
4.31
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
11%
4.66
2/X
8%
12.65
Value flag · 1/X at 12.35 — our 13% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.0pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Queretaro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -3%
1.29/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.35
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
20.8 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Necaxa vs Queretaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.08 xG 0.92
52% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
286 Passes 280
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.12.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa HAZ
28.08.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
25.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
11.07.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-2 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
12.03.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Necaxa 1-1 Queretaro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-1
AWAY Queretaro
0.88 xG 0.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
212 Passes 255
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa and Queretaro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Necaxa at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Necaxa had 46% of the ball to Queretaro's 54%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 0.88 to 0.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Necaxa and 0.83 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Queretaro?

Necaxa 1-1 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 42%, draw 28%, Queretaro 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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