SSC Farul 1-4 Sepsi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 26% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SSC Farul EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sepsi EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -21%
1.90/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.42
+17% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SSC Farul
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sepsi
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2024 Sepsi Sepsi 1-1 HT 1-1 SSC Farul SSC Farul ROM
19.02.2024 Sepsi Sepsi 0-1 HT 0-0 SSC Farul SSC Farul ROM
30.09.2023 SSC Farul SSC Farul 2-1 HT 1-1 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
29.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-1 HT 0-0 SSC Farul SSC Farul ROM
19.03.2023 SSC Farul SSC Farul 2-1 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
28.02.2023 SSC Farul SSC Farul 2-0 HT 2-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SSC Farul
1-4
AWAY Sepsi
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH SSC Farul vs Sepsi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sepsi swept aside SSC Farul 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was SSC Farul at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, SSC Farul had 53% of the ball to Sepsi's 47%, shots finished 25-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, SSC Farul had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for SSC Farul and 0.67 for Sepsi.

What was the final score of SSC Farul vs Sepsi?

SSC Farul 1-4 Sepsi in the Romania - 1st Division on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SSC Farul vs Sepsi?

Before kick-off our model rated a SSC Farul win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split SSC Farul 44%, draw 26%, Sepsi 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SSC Farul), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SSC Farul) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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