Western United 4-2 Auckland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.27
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.4
1/2
13%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
16%
5.46
X/2
11%
6.21
X/X
17%
4.96
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.15
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Auckland EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.76/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.02
-18% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +126%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
19.5 Crosses 19.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Auckland
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.94 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
321 Passes 270
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
15.02.2025 Western United Western United 0-2 HT 0-2 Auckland Auckland AVUS
21.12.2024 Auckland Auckland 0-4 HT 0-3 Western United Western United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
4-2
AWAY Auckland
2.10 xG 1.85
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
277 Passes 370
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Western United vs Auckland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United got the better of Auckland 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Western United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Western United had 43% of the ball to Auckland's 57%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.10 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Western United and 1.00 for Auckland.

What was the final score of Western United vs Auckland?

Western United 4-2 Auckland in the Australia - A-League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Auckland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Western United 36%, draw 29%, Auckland 35%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Western United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Western United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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3 May 2025
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