Auckland 0-4 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Dec 2024

Auckland
0-4 HT 0-3
Western United
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Auckland vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.21
Over 2.5
64%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.7
No
40%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
36%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.85 — our 36% vs market 28.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.96
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
15.9
X/1
20%
3.94
X/2
9%
11.2
X/X
6%
6.24
2/1
9%
21.1
2/2
14%
8.17
2/X
6%
16.45
Value flag · 1/X at 15.9 — our 11% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-9.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
41%
-5.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
59%
+5.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
55%
+5.2pp
40%
BTTS No
45%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auckland v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 21%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.03/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.78
-9% / +136% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
20.0 Crosses 16.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Auckland 0-4 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
0-4
AWAY Western United
0.78 xG 2.75
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 8
314 Passes 184
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western United swept aside Auckland 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was Auckland at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (64%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

On the day, Auckland had 60% of the ball to Western United's 40%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 0.78 to 2.75.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Western United?

Auckland 0-4 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Auckland 51%, draw 23%, Western United 26%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Auckland), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auckland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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